Family-based Green Card preference 2A: Predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

What is this prediction about?
This is a prediction of the ‘Final Action Date’ of the Visa Bulletin for family Green Cards F2A (Spouses and children of Green Card holders) for ‘All Countries’ (not Mexico and not the Philippines) based on the latest available data (August 2018).

Only applicants who have priority date that is ‘current’ when compared to the ‘Final Action Date’ can have the process of scheduling a Green Card interview initiated by U.S. immigration agencies. Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s priority date is ‘earlier’ than the Final Action Date that applies to them: if the Final Action Date is January 1st, 2017; then applicants with a priority date of December 25th 2016 are current;  but applicants with a priority date of January 5th, 2017 are not current.

The month when the applicant’s priority date is current, U.S. immigration agencies look for an available Interview slot in the month after next (if the applicant’s priority date becomes current in January, then they will start looking for slots in March). How long applicants wait depend on how busy the U.S. Consulate or USCIS Field office is.

Also, generally, family Green Card applicants who live in the United States and go through adjustment of status can use the ‘Filing Date’ of the Visa Bulletin to determine if they can file form I-485 (we will confirm in the next few days whether that is again the case in August 2018 as USCIS releases that information).

What does Immigration Planner predict?
F2A advancement is solid with 4 weeks. The slowdown of July 2018 (2-week advancement only) may have been a temporary. Our current predictions are as follows:

More specifically, these are the dates we predict:

Visa Bulletin Predictions for F2A Final Action Dates.
Visa Bulletin
F2A Final Action date
Jan 2018Feb 1, 2016actual
Feb 2018Mar 1, 2016actual
Mar 2018Mar 22, 2016actual
Apr 2018May 1, 2016actual
May 2018Jun 1, 2016actual
Jun 2018Jun 8, 2016actual
Jul 2018Jun 22, 2016actual
Aug 2018Jul 22, 2016actual
Sep 2018Sep 22, 2016prediction
Oct 2018Oct 22, 2016prediction
Nov 2018Nov 22, 2016prediction
Dec 2018Dec 22, 2016prediction
Jan 2018Jan 22, 2017prediction
Feb 2018Mar 1, 2017prediction
Mar 2018Mar 22, 2017prediction
Apr 2018May 1, 2017prediction
May 2018Jun 1, 2017prediction
Jun 2018Jul 1, 2017prediction
Jul 2018Aug 1, 2017prediction
Aug 2018Sep 1, 2017prediction
Sep 2018Oct 1, 2017prediction
Oct 2018Nov 1, 2017prediction
Nov 2018Dec 8, 2017prediction
Dec 2018Jan 8, 2018prediction
Jan 20Feb 8, 2018prediction
Feb 20Mar 8, 2018prediction
Mar 20Apr 8, 2018prediction
Apr 20May 8, 2018prediction
May 20Jun 8, 2018prediction
Jun 20Jul 8, 2018prediction
Jul 20Aug 8, 2018prediction
Aug 20Sep 15, 2018prediction
Sep 20Oct 15, 2018prediction

What is the ‘time to current’ for F2A?
Looking back, this is how long it took for prior applicants to have their priority date become current. For F2A, the latest available data shows it took just under 7 years:

What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
Fiscal Year 2018 is shaping up to be a solid year for F2A. If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is slightly above average:

What happened last year?
Fiscal Year 2017 was not an impressive year for the advancement of F2A. We compared the month by month progression of 2017 with the last 20 years and can see that 2017 is in the bottom third.

When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around August 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for September 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.