F2A-All Countries: Visa Bulletin Predictions

What is happening with F2A- All countries?

To understand what is happening with F2A- All Countries, we have to go back to the summer of 2019. In June 2019, the Final Action Date for F2A was July 15th 2017. In July 2019, it became ‘current’ which means that the cutoff date moved forward two years to July 1st 2019.

At the time, we thought it was going to be temporary. How could it be otherwise when there is an annual numerical limit on F2A that is around 88,000. But no, the date has stayed ‘current’ ever since defying expectations. And even during the pandemic, there has been no change.

Looking at ‘time to current’ is particularly telling. We were looking at around two years, and suddenly you are ‘current’!

Obviously this had significant implications. Suddenly, F2A applicants going through Consular Processing no longer had to wait to start their NVC processing.

And applicants going through adjustment of status could do concurrent filing, just like spouses and young children of U.S. Citizens. Before many F2A saw their visa expire during the Visa Bulletin wait, and by the time they were ‘current’ that made them ineligible to file for adjustment.

So the only question is essentially: will this end?

Do you expect a retrogression in the F2A category in the coming months?

The short answer is ‘no’, I do not see a change in the current status for F2A in the foreseeable future.

I can say that if posts were to suddenly return to full operational status and begin utilizing F2A numbers at a much, much higher pace than normal it may require a final action date to be imposed at some point in the future.

I do not see foresee that happening.

I think that the current amount of F2A demand will be slowly reduced through the course of the year, and that slow reduction will reduce or eliminate completely any need for a [final action] date [to be imposed], at least during fiscal year 2022.

Official recording here.

How did the Final Action Date move in the past few months?

See here for F2A Mexico and the Philippines.

Note: U.S. immigration agencies ‘Fiscal Year’ is from October to the following September. It is different from a ‘Calendar’ year. For example Fiscal Year 2022 is from October 2021 to September 2022.