Family-based green card preference 2B: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

What is family-based preference 2B (F2B)?
Unmarried adult children of green card holders.


What do you predict?
We are predicting the advancement of the ‘final action date’, which is published every month in the visa bulletin. Applicants who filed before the ‘final action date’:

  • May submit their request to adjust status (form I-485) when they are filing from within the United States. However, at least until May 31st 2018, adjustment of status applicants can file if their priority date is current compared to the filing date (the ‘gain’ for applicants is close to 4 months)
  • May have their interview scheduled when they are going through consular processing

What is the basis of the prediction?
We released a first prediction at the beginning of the U.S. government fiscal year, which started on October 1st 2017. Now, because we know the actual visa bulletin dates for Oct. ’17 – Jun. ’18, we are able to update this prediction, and extend it to Dec ’19.


Does the prediction apply to Mexico and the Philippines?
No, it does not. It applies to all countries except Mexico and the Philippines.


What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is back in the middle of the pack, and the progress of the last few months is notable:

What does Immigration Planner predict?
It really looks like the Final Action Dates for F2B were not moved forward in the first 4 months of Fiscal Year 2018 (Oct. ’17 – Jan. ’18). Ever since, it feels like the Visa Bulletin has been playing catch-up, and the acceleration is even more notable in June 2018 with a 5-week jump forward. Our current predictions are as follows:


More specifically, these are the dates we predict:

Visa Bulletin Predictions for F2B Final Action Dates.
Visa Bulletin
F2B Final Action date
Type
Jan 2018Dec 1, 2010actual
Feb 2018Jan 15, 2011actual
Mar 2018Mar 1, 2011actual
Apr 2018Apr 8, 2011actual
May 2018May 15, 2011actual
Jun 2018Jun 22, 2011actual
Jul 2018Aug 1, 2011prediction
Aug 2018Sep 1, 2011prediction
Sep 2018Oct 1, 2011prediction
Oct 2018Nov 1, 2011prediction
Nov 2018Dec 8, 2011prediction
Dec 2018Jan 8, 2012prediction
Jan 2019Feb 8, 2012prediction
Feb 2019Mar 8, 2012prediction
Mar 2019Apr 8, 2012prediction
Apr 2019May 15, 2012prediction
May 2019Jun 15, 2012prediction
Jun 2019Jul 15, 2012prediction
Jul 2019Aug 15, 2012prediction
Aug 2019Sep 15, 2012prediction
Sep 2019Oct 15, 2012prediction
Oct 2019Nov 22, 2012prediction
Nov 2019Dec 22, 2012prediction
Dec 2019Jan 22, 2013prediction

What happened last year?
Fiscal year 2017 was already a weak year for the advancement of F2B. We compared the month by month progression of 2017 with the last 20 years, and after a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled:


When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around June 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for July 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.

Related Resources

Visa Bulletin
Visa Bulletin: June 2018 analysis

Analysis of the June 2018 Visa Bulletin for family Green Card applicants.

F1 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card F1 preference: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F1 date for 'all countries' will reach October 22nd, 2011 in January 2019.

F2A Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 2A: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2A date for 'all countries' will reach March 1st, 2017 in January 2019.

F3 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 3: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F3 date for 'all countries' will reach May 22nd, 2006 in January 2019.

F4 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 4: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F4 date for 'all countries' will reach April 15th, 2005 in January 2019.

List of all the questions in the DS-260

All the questions in the DS-260, an online form used by the National Visa Center (NVC) to gather information about applicants for family green cards.