Family-based Green Card preference 2B: Predictions for the ‘Final Action date’


What is this prediction about?
This is a prediction of the ‘Final Action Date’ of the Visa Bulletin for family Green Cards F3 (Unmarried adult children of Green Card holders) for ‘All Countries’ (not Mexico and not the Philippines) based on the latest available data (August 2018).

Only applicants who have priority date that is ‘current’ when compared to the ‘Final Action Date’ can have the process of scheduling a Green Card interview initiated by U.S. immigration agencies. Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s priority date is ‘earlier’ than the Final Action Date that applies to them: if the Final Action Date is January 1st, 2017; then applicants with a priority date of December 25th 2016 are current;  but applicants with a priority date of January 5th, 2017 are not current.

The month when the applicant’s priority date is current, U.S. immigration agencies look for an available Interview slot in the month after next (if the applicant’s priority date becomes current in January, then they will start looking for slots in March). How long applicants wait depend on how busy the U.S. Consulate or USCIS Field office is.

Also, generally, family Green Card applicants who live in the United States and go through adjustment of status can use the ‘Filing Date’ of the Visa Bulletin to determine if they can file form I-485 (we will confirm in the next few days whether that is again the case in August 2018 as USCIS releases that information).


What does Immigration Planner predict?
F2B has its best month of the year in August 2018 with a 9-week advancement, following a 7-week advancement July 2018 and a 5-week advancement in June 2018. So U.S. immigration agencies are still building an ‘inventory’ of interviews and try to get applicants to submit their applications. Our current predictions are as follows:

More specifically, these are the dates we predict:

Visa Bulletin Predictions for F2B Final Action Dates.
Visa Bulletin
F2B Final Action date
Type
Jan 2018Dec 1, 2010actual
Feb 2018Jan 15, 2011actual
Mar 2018Mar 1, 2011actual
Apr 2018Apr 8, 2011actual
May 2018May 15, 2011actual
Jun 2018Jun 22, 2011actual
Jul 2018Aug 15, 2011actual
Aug 2018Oct 22, 2011actual
Sep 2018Nov 22, 2011prediction
Oct 2018Dec 22, 2011prediction
Nov 2018Jan 22, 2012prediction
Dec 2018Mar 1, 2012prediction
Jan 2018Apr 1, 2012prediction
Feb 2018May 8, 2012prediction
Mar 2018Jun 8, 2012prediction
Apr 2018Jul 8, 2012prediction
May 2018Aug 8, 2012prediction
Jun 2018Sep 15, 2012prediction
Jul 2018Oct 15, 2012prediction
Aug 2018Nov 15, 2012prediction
Sep 2018Dec 22, 2012prediction
Oct 2018Jan 22, 2013prediction
Nov 2018Feb 22, 2013prediction
Dec 2018Mar 22, 2013prediction
Jan 20Apr 22, 2013prediction
Feb 20Jun 1, 2013prediction
Mar 20Jul 1, 2013prediction
Apr 20Aug 8, 2013prediction
May 20Sep 8, 2013prediction
Jun 20Oct 8, 2013prediction
Jul 20Nov 15, 2013prediction
Aug 20Dec 15, 2013prediction
Sep 20Jan 15, 2014prediction

What is the ‘time to current’ for F2B?
Looking back, this is how long it took for prior applicants to have their priority date become current. For F2B, the latest available data shows it took just under 7 years:


Should you stay in F2B by ‘opting out’ of F1?
When sponsors who were Green Card holders become U.S. Citizen, their over-21-year-old unmarried children are moved from F2B to F1. But these applicants can also stay in F2B by ‘opting-out’ of F1. Should they stay? Right now, they should strongly consider it. For ‘all countries’, F2B is currently ‘ahead’ of F1 by 5.5 months:


What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is back in the middle of the pack, and the progress of the last few months is notable:

 


What happened last year?
Fiscal year 2017 was already a weak year for the advancement of F2B. We compared the month by month progression of 2017 with the last 20 years, and after a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled:


When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around August 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for September 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.