What is family-based preference 4 (F4)?
Brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens.
What do you predict?
We are predicting the advancement of the ‘final action date’, which is published every month in the visa bulletin. Applicants who filed before the ‘final action date’:
- May submit their request to adjust status (form I-485) when they are filing from within the United States. However, at least until May 31st 2018, adjustment of status applicants can file if their priority date is current compared to the filing date (the ‘gain’ for applicants is 6 months)
- May have their interview scheduled when they are going through consular processing
What is the basis of the prediction?
We released a first prediction at the beginning of the U.S. government fiscal year, which started on October 1st 2017. Now, because we know the actual visa bulletin dates for Oct. ’17 – Jun. ’18, we are able to update this prediction, and extend our prediction to Dec. ’19.
Does the prediction apply to Mexico, the Philippines, India?
No, it does not. The prediction applies to applicants from all countries except Mexico, the Philippines, and India.
What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is still below historical averages, but the progress of the last few months is notable:
What does Immigration Planner predict?
The first 4 months of Fiscal Year 2018 (Oct. ’17 – Jan. ’18) have seen limited advancement for F4, but things got better ever since. June 2018, which saw a 3-week advancement, is another sign that F4 is on a more favourable path. Our current predictions are as follows:
More specifically, these are the dates we predict:
F4 Final Action date
|Jan 2018||Jun 22, 2004||actual|
|Feb 2018||Jul 22, 2004||actual|
|Mar 2018||Aug 22, 2004||actual|
|Apr 2018||Sep 15, 2004||actual|
|May 2018||Oct 1, 2004||actual|
|Jun 2018||Oct 22, 2004||actual|
|Jul 2018||Nov 22, 2004||prediction|
|Aug 2018||Dec 15, 2004||prediction|
|Sep 2018||Jan 8, 2005||prediction|
|Oct 2018||Jan 22, 2005||prediction|
|Nov 2018||Feb 22, 2005||prediction|
|Dec 2018||Mar 22, 2005||prediction|
|Jan 2019||Apr 15, 2005||prediction|
|Feb 2019||May 8, 2005||prediction|
|Mar 2019||Jun 1, 2005||prediction|
|Apr 2019||Jun 22, 2005||prediction|
|May 2019||Jul 15, 2005||prediction|
|Jun 2019||Aug 8, 2005||prediction|
|Jul 2019||Sep 1, 2005||prediction|
|Aug 2019||Sep 22, 2005||prediction|
|Sep 2019||Oct 22, 2005||prediction|
|Oct 2019||Nov 15, 2005||prediction|
|Nov 2019||Dec 8, 2005||prediction|
|Dec 2019||Jan 1, 2006||prediction|
What happened last year?
Fiscal year 2017 was already a weak year for the advancement of F4. We compared the month by month progression of 2017 with the last 20 years, and after a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled:
When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around June 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for July 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F1 date for 'all countries' will reach October 22nd, 2011 in January 2019.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2A date for 'all countries' will reach March 1st, 2017 in January 2019.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2B date for 'all countries' will reach February 8th, 2012 in January 2019.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F3 date for 'all countries' will reach May 22nd, 2006 in January 2019.