Family-based Green Card preference 4: Predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

What is this prediction about?
This is a prediction of the ‘Final Action Date’ of the Visa Bulletin for family Green Cards F4 (Brothers and Sisters of U.S. Citizens) for ‘All Countries’ (not Mexico and not the Philippines) based on the latest available data (August 2018).

Only applicants who have priority date that is ‘current’ when compared to the ‘Final Action Date’ can have the process of scheduling a Green Card interview initiated by U.S. immigration agencies. Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s priority date is ‘earlier’ than the Final Action Date that applies to them: if the Final Action Date is January 1st, 2017; then applicants with a priority date of December 25th 2016 are current;  but applicants with a priority date of January 5th, 2017 are not current.

The month when the applicant’s priority date is current, U.S. immigration agencies look for an available Interview slot in the month after next (if the applicant’s priority date becomes current in January, then they will start looking for slots in March). How long applicants wait depend on how busy the U.S. Consulate or USCIS Field office is.

Also, generally, family Green Card applicants who live in the United States and go through adjustment of status can use the ‘Filing Date’ of the Visa Bulletin to determine if they can file form I-485 (we will confirm in the next few days whether that is again the case in August 2018 as USCIS releases that information).

What does Immigration Planner predict?
F4 is doing better since February 2018, and August 2018 turns out to be the best month of the year with a 5-week advancement following a 3-week advancement in July 2018. Our current predictions are as follows:

More specifically, these are the dates we predict:

Visa Bulletin Predictions for F4 Final Action Dates.
Visa Bulletin
F4 Final Action date
Jan 2018Jun 22, 2004actual
Feb 2018Jul 22, 2004actual
Mar 2018Aug 22, 2004actual
Apr 2018Sep 15, 2004actual
May 2018Oct 1, 2004actual
Jun 2018Oct 22, 2004actual
Jul 2018Nov 15, 2004actual
Aug 2018Dec 22, 2004actual
Sep 2018Jan 22, 2005prediction
Oct 2018Feb 8, 2005prediction
Nov 2018Mar 1, 2005prediction
Dec 2018Mar 22, 2005prediction
Jan 2018Apr 22, 2005prediction
Feb 2018May 8, 2005prediction
Mar 2018Jun 1, 2005prediction
Apr 2018Jun 22, 2005prediction
May 2018Jul 15, 2005prediction
Jun 2018Aug 8, 2005prediction
Jul 2018Aug 22, 2005prediction
Aug 2018Sep 22, 2005prediction
Sep 2018Oct 15, 2005prediction
Oct 2018Nov 1, 2005prediction
Nov 2018Nov 22, 2005prediction
Dec 2018Dec 22, 2005prediction
Jan 20Jan 8, 2006prediction
Feb 20Feb 1, 2006prediction
Mar 20Feb 22, 2006prediction
Apr 20Mar 15, 2006prediction
May 20Apr 8, 2006prediction
Jun 20May 1, 2006prediction
Jul 20May 22, 2006prediction
Aug 20Jun 15, 2006prediction
Sep 20Jul 8, 2006prediction

What is the ‘time to current’ for F4?
Looking back, this is how long it took for prior applicants to have their priority date become current. For F4, the latest available data shows it took between 13 and 14 years:

What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is still below historical averages, but the progress of the last few months is notable:

What happened last year?
Fiscal year 2017 was already a weak year for the advancement of F4. We compared the month by month progression of 2017 with the last 20 years, and after a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled:

When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around August 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for September 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.