Family-based green card preference 4: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

What is family-based preference 4 (F4)?
Brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens.


What do you predict?
We are predicting the advancement of the ‘final action date’, which is published every month in the visa bulletin. Applicants who filed before the ‘final action date’:

  • May submit their request to adjust status (form I-485) when they are filing from within the United States. However, at least until May 31st 2018, adjustment of status applicants can file if their priority date is current compared to the filing date (the ‘gain’ for applicants is 6 months)
  • May have their interview scheduled when they are going through consular processing

What is the basis of the prediction?
We released a first prediction at the beginning of the U.S. government fiscal year, which started on October 1st 2017. Now, because we know the actual visa bulletin dates for Oct. ’17 – Jun. ’18, we are able to update this prediction, and extend our prediction to Dec. ’19.


Does the prediction apply to Mexico, the Philippines, India?
No, it does not. The prediction applies to applicants from all countries except Mexico, the Philippines, and India.


What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is still below historical averages, but the progress of the last few months is notable:


What does Immigration Planner predict?
The first 4 months of Fiscal Year 2018 (Oct. ’17 – Jan. ’18) have seen limited advancement for F4, but things got better ever since. June 2018, which saw a 3-week advancement, is another sign that F4 is on a more favourable path. Our current predictions are as follows:


More specifically, these are the dates we predict:

Visa Bulletin Predictions for F4 Final Action Dates.
Visa Bulletin
F4 Final Action date
Type
Jan 2018Jun 22, 2004actual
Feb 2018Jul 22, 2004actual
Mar 2018Aug 22, 2004actual
Apr 2018Sep 15, 2004actual
May 2018Oct 1, 2004actual
Jun 2018Oct 22, 2004actual
Jul 2018Nov 22, 2004prediction
Aug 2018Dec 15, 2004prediction
Sep 2018Jan 8, 2005prediction
Oct 2018Jan 22, 2005prediction
Nov 2018Feb 22, 2005prediction
Dec 2018Mar 22, 2005prediction
Jan 2019Apr 15, 2005prediction
Feb 2019May 8, 2005prediction
Mar 2019Jun 1, 2005prediction
Apr 2019Jun 22, 2005prediction
May 2019Jul 15, 2005prediction
Jun 2019Aug 8, 2005prediction
Jul 2019Sep 1, 2005prediction
Aug 2019Sep 22, 2005prediction
Sep 2019Oct 22, 2005prediction
Oct 2019Nov 15, 2005prediction
Nov 2019Dec 8, 2005prediction
Dec 2019Jan 1, 2006prediction

What happened last year?
Fiscal year 2017 was already a weak year for the advancement of F4. We compared the month by month progression of 2017 with the last 20 years, and after a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled:


When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around June 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for July 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.

Related Resources

Visa Bulletin
Visa Bulletin: June 2018 analysis

Analysis of the June 2018 Visa Bulletin for family Green Card applicants.

F1 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card F1 preference: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F1 date for 'all countries' will reach October 22nd, 2011 in January 2019.

F2A Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 2A: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2A date for 'all countries' will reach March 1st, 2017 in January 2019.

f2b
Family-based green card preference 2B: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2B date for 'all countries' will reach February 8th, 2012 in January 2019.

F3 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 3: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F3 date for 'all countries' will reach May 22nd, 2006 in January 2019.

List of all the questions in the DS-260

All the questions in the DS-260, an online form used by the National Visa Center (NVC) to gather information about applicants for family green cards.