What does Immigration Planner predict?
Our latest predictions for the Final Action Dates of F2A for 🇲🇽Mexico.
Spouses of Green Card holders, or young Children of Green Card holders who are not married.
What is the latest?
|Visa Bulletin Date:||Oct 2022|
|Final Action Date:||Apr 22, 2019|
F2A has been 'current' since July 2019 and the only question is when it is going to end-- if ever. Up until August 2022, there was no indication that it would, but then F2A-Mexico retrogressed dramatically. October 2022 confirmed the hypothesis that the retrogression for Mexico was simply a way to keep overall Mexico numbers under the country limit, and had nothing to do with F2A.
Another good news is the strong issuance of consular F2As, which are only 10% down from pre-pandemic levels in FY2022. F2A interviews are clearly prioritized over other preferences.
Note: U.S. immigration agencies ‘Fiscal Year’ is from October to the following September. It is different from a ‘Calendar’ year. For example Fiscal Year 2018 is from October 2017 to September 2018, and Fiscal Year 2019 is from October 2018 to September 2019.
|Oct 2022||Apr 22, 2019||None|
|Sep 2022||Apr 22, 2019||None|
|Aug 2022||Apr 22, 2019||-166 weeks|
|Jul 2022||Jul 1, 2022||+4 weeks|
|Jun 2022||Jun 1, 2022||+4 weeks|
|May 2022||May 1, 2022||+4 weeks|
I am going through adjustment of status, what else applies to me?
Applicants going through Adjustment of Status are often allowed to use the ‘Filing Date’ of the Visa Bulletin to determine when they are allowed to file Form I-485. Here is the latest:
|Oct 1, 2022||+4 weeks||✔︎ Yes, the Filing Date can be used|
Historically, how long did it take for F2A-Mexico applicants to become ‘current’?
This is how long it took for prior F2A-Mexico applicants to have their priority date become current, plus our prediction for the next few years:
When will the Interview be scheduled?
The process of scheduling the interview is initiated by U.S. immigration agencies when the following two requirements are met:
- The applicant’s Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the relevant ‘Final Action Date’
- The applicant’s Green Card Case is ‘interview-ready’ (also called ‘case complete’ or ‘documentarily qualified’, meaning that all the proper Forms, Evidence, and Fees necessary to make a decision on the Green Card Application have been received by U.S. Immigration Agencies).
Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s Priority Date (which is when Form I-130 was filed) is ‘earlier’ than the relevant Final Action Date. If the relevant Final Action Date is January 1st 2018, then applicants with a Priority Date ‘earlier’ (that is up to December 31st 2016) are said to be current.
The relevant Final Action Date refers to the Final Action Date that applies to applicants based on their preference classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) and countries of birth (Mexico, All Countries, …).
The month when the applicant’s Priority Date is current, U.S. Immigration agencies look for an available Interview slot in the month after next (if the applicant’s priority date becomes current in January, then they will start looking for slots in March). How long applicants wait depend on how busy the U.S. Consulate or USCIS Field office is.
What happened during Fiscal Year 2018?
Fiscal Year 2018 refers to the period from October 2017 to September 2018. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2018 (represented by the annotated line). Fiscal Year 2018 was below the average of the last 20 years for F2A-Mexico:
When will Immigration Planner update its predictions?
We expect to update our predictions the day after the next Visa Bulletin is released. Our best guess as to when we will update these predictions is as follows:
Oct 15, 2022