Family Visa Bulletin:
September 2019 Analysis & Predictions

All Countries | Mexico | Philippines | India F4

October 2019 Predictions

All Countries – September 2019 Visa Bulletin

Preference
Final Action
Movement
Remark

🌐All Countries Visa Bulletin for September 2019

F1Jan 1, 2013+26 weeksFiscal Year 2019 went out with a big bang for F1 - All Countries. This last-minute, 26-week advancement make FY 2019 the second best year of the last 20 years! At the beginning of FY2020 in October 2019, we shall worry about retrogressions, but let's enjoy the moment for now...F1 Predictions
F2ASep 1, 2019+4 weeksFor the third month in a row, F2A is 'current' for all countries of chargeability. If you can, take advantage of it because it will likely not last into the new Fiscal Year which starts October 1st, 2019. So for those going through Consular Processing, be ready and if you can, file the rest of your documents as soon as possible. Also, for those going through Adjustment of Status, USCIS clarified the Visa Bulletin by announcing that Spouses and Young Children of U.S. Green Card Holders can file concurrently (Form I-130 and I-485) in August and September 2019. Applicants who already filed Form I-130, whether it has been approved or not, can also file Form I-485 in August and September 2019.F2A Predictions
F2BJun 1, 2014+21 weeksFiscal Year 2019 has been, by far, the best of the last 20 years in terms of advancement for F2B - All Countries. An incredible pace of advancement started in March 2019 and simply never stopped. We are hopeful that there will be no significant retrogression in the coming months, as F2B - All Countries essentially caught up with its 10-year historical trend, but will certainly take another look at the numbers in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.F2B Predictions
F3Sep 1, 2007+10 weeksWe have to go all the way back to 2007 to find a year that has been as good for F2B - All Countries, as FY2019 has been. We were wrong to expect a technical retrogression in September 2019, but we are certainly worried about one in October 2019. Come back soon for an update on that front.F3 Predictions
F4Nov 1, 2006+4 weeksFiscal Year 2019 has been the best of the last 20 years for F4 - All Countries. The advancement picked up considerably in February 2019 and has been strong ever since. Because F4 - All Countries caught up with its 20-year historical trendline, we hope that any future retrogression, if any, will be limited- but check back for an updated analysis of this front.F4 Predictions

Latest

What is special about the September 2019 Visa Bulletin?

USCIS Fiscal Year ends in September 2019 (not in December), so this is the last month of the year! This is the time when we can start to see how Fiscal Year 2019 was, and even more importantly, what are the first learnings to be refined for Fiscal Year 2020 (which starts on October 1st, 2019). There will be plenty more updates and analysis to come, but these are our first thoughts as of August 15ht, 2019.

Don’t see your Priority Date? Want to know when your Interview will take place? Get more details with Immigration Planner.

Mexico – September 2019 Visa Bulletin

Preference
Final Action
Movement
Remark

🇲🇽Mexico Visa Bulletin for September 2019

F1Aug 1, 1996NoneSo after generating enough applications through aggressive advancement during Fiscal Year 2018, U.S. immigration agencies simply had enough applicants 'interview-ready' for the entirety of Fiscal Year 2019. We will have to wait for October 1st, 2019 and the new Fiscal Year for the technical retrogression of the last few months to hopefully disappear.F1 Predictions
F2ASep 1, 2019+4 weeksFor the third month in a row, F2A is 'current' for all countries of chargeability, including Mexico. If you can, take advantage of it because it will likely not last into the new Fiscal Year which starts October 1st, 2019. So for those going through Consular Processing, be ready and if you can, file the rest of your documents as soon as possible. Also, for those going through Adjustment of Status, USCIS clarified the Visa Bulletin by announcing that Spouses and Young Children of U.S. Green Card Holders can file concurrently (Form I-130 and I-485) in August and September 2019. Applicants who already filed Form I-130, whether it has been approved or not, can also file Form I-485 in August and September 2019.F2A Predictions
F2BJul 1, 1998+4 weeksFiscal Year 2019 has been the best of the last 20 years for F2B - Mexico. Times are generally better with 5 of the last 6 years (2016 being the exception) have been above average. We will update our analysis for FY2020 in the coming weeks, see if this trend can keep going.F2B Predictions
F3Dec 1, 1995NoneFiscal Year 2019 is a year to forget for F3 - All Countries. Obviously the advancement of Fiscal Year 2018 created enough applications that were 'interview-ready' for the entirety of the year. This year was all about managing scarcity, a situation that will hopefully end in October 2019.F3 Predictions
F4Jan 1, 1997NoneAs expected, F4 - Mexico has been shut down for the year, and we saw no advancement in September 2019. The last 10 years have now been below the average of the last 20 years. Is that a sign of tougher times to come for F4 - Mexico. Come back for our updated predictions for FY 2020 and beyond in the next few weeks.F4 Predictions

Philippines – September 2019 Visa Bulletin

Preference
Final Action
Movement
Remark

🇵🇭Philippines Visa Bulletin for September 2019

F1Jun 22, 2008+17 weeksFiscal Year 2019 has been quite an erratic year for F1 - Philippines. After a slow start, we saw a big jump in the last few months of the year. So after undershooting, did the State department overshoot? That will certainly be the key question come October 1st, 2019 and the new Fiscal Year 2020.F1 Predictions
F2ASep 1, 2019+4 weeksFor the third month in a row, F2A is 'current' for all countries of chargeability, including the Philippines. If you can, take advantage of it because it will likely not last into the new Fiscal Year which starts October 1st, 2019. So for those going through Consular Processing, be ready and if you can, file the rest of your documents as soon as possible. Also, for those going through Adjustment of Status, USCIS clarified the Visa Bulletin by announcing that Spouses and Young Children of U.S. Green Card Holders can file concurrently (Form I-130 and I-485) in August and September 2019. Applicants who already filed Form I-130, whether it has been approved or not, can also file Form I-485 in August and September 2019.F2A Predictions
F2BAug 1, 2008+17 weeksThe pattern of the last few years of a strong second half of the Fiscal Year held true for F2B - Philippines, with another strong advancement in September 2019, propelling Fiscal Year 2019 as one of the best years of the last 20 years.F2B Predictions
F3Feb 1, 1998+17 weeksObviously there is something deeply wrong with the way the State Department handled F3 - Philippines. September 2019 is the 7th month in a row of 'brutal', hardly ever seen before, advancement. We will have to take a deep breath to figure out what might come in Fiscal Year 2020 after a year where the State Department seemed to desparately look for documentarily qualified applicants, and not find them. Come back soon for a detailed analysis.F3 Predictions
F4Jul 1, 1998+8 weeksThe period from 2013 to 2018 has been more or less in line with the averages of the last 20 years. But something happened in Fiscal Year 2019 with the State Department looking for documentarily qualified applicants for F4 - Philippines. And like for F3 - Philippines, not finding them. The advancement for FY2019 has been nothing short of spectacular, but the question will soon become what is left of it when the new Fiscal Year begin in October 1st, 2019.F4 Predictions

India – September 2019 Visa Bulletin

🇮🇳India F4 – September 2019

F4
Latest
Visa Bulletin Date:Sep 2019
Chargeability:India
Final Action Date:Sep 22, 2004
Movement:+1 weeks

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Frequently Asked Questions

Your Priority Date is the date when Form I-130 filed by the sponsor is accepted by USCIS. Form I-130 is accepted by USCIS when all required fields are filled out, the proper fee is enclosed, and the form is signed. As a result, ‘accepted’, is a few days after ‘received’ and a few months and years before ‘approved’. The Priority Date is displayed on the receipt sent by USCIS (Form I-797C).

Applicants who are eligible under a ‘preference’ classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) have a Priority Date, because they are subject to Annual Numerical Limits: the number of Green Cards that can be granted annually under their ‘preference’ is capped.

Note: If you have a Receipt Date, and not a Priority Date, then you are an ‘immediate relative’ and the Visa Bulletin does not apply to you.

The ‘Final Action Date’ (F.A.D.) that applies to you depends on your ‘country of chargeability’ (All Countries, Mexico, the Philippines, and India for F4) and your ‘immigration category’ (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, and F4).

Your ‘country of chargeability’ is generally the country where you were born. If you were not born in Mexico, the Philppines or India, then your country of chargeability is ‘All Countries’. You can read the FAQ ‘What is your country of chargeability?’ if you are in doubt.

Your ‘immigration category’ depends on the sponsor’s legal status (U.S. Citizen or Green Card Holder), the family relationship between applicant and sponsor (spouse, child, or sibling), the age of the applicant (20 years or younger, 21 years or older), and the marital status of the applicant (married, or not married).

Your country of chargeability is where you were born, not where you currently reside. For example, applicants who were born in the Philippines but who currently hold a French passport will be ‘charged’ to the Philippines, not France.

There are however instances where applicants can be ‘charged’ to a country that is not the country where they were born. This matters only to applicants who were born in Mexico, the Philippines and F4-India applicants:

  • Spouses who are immigrating together, but were born in different countries, can pick the most beneficial country of chargeability
  • F2A-Spouses whose lawful permanent resident spouse was born in a different country may use the lawful permanent resident spouse’s country of chargeability, if more favorable
  • Children can cross-charge to a country of chargeability of the parent he or she is immigrating with or following to join
  • If a person is born in country where neither of his or her parents had citizenship or permanent residence, the person’s country of chargeability can be the country of either of his parents’ birth.

Your immigration category depends on the sponsor’s legal status (U.S. Citizen or Green Card Holder), the family relationship between applicant and sponsor (spouse, child, or sibling), the age of the applicant (20 years or younger, 21 years or older), and the marital status of the applicant (married, or not married):

Sponsor's Status
Family Relationship
Applicant's Marital Status
Applicant's Age
Immigration Category
Green Card HolderSpouseMarried20- or 21+F2A
Green Card HolderChildMarried20- or 21+F2B
Green Card HolderChildNot Married20-F2A
Green Card HolderChildNot Married21+F2B
U.S. CitizenChildNot Married20- or 21+F1
U.S. CitizenChildMarried20- or 21+F3
U.S. CitizenSiblingMarried or Not Married20- or 21+F4

Immigration Category Change
The applicant’s immigration category may change if the applicant gets married, turns 21, or if the sponsor gets married:

Initial Category
Change in Marital Status
Applicant's Age
Sponsor becomes a U.S. Citizen
New category
F2A ChildApplicant gets married--F2B
F2A Child-Applicant turns 21 and is not CSPA protected-F2B
F2A Child or SpouseSponsor becomes a USCImmediate Relative Child or Spouse
F2B--Sponsor becomes a USCF1 ('opt-out' possible)
F1Applicant gets married--F3
F3Applicant gets divorced--F1

‘Derivative Applicants’ who are the children of ‘Principal Applicants’ will no longer be eligible for a Green Card if:

  • They get married; or
  • They turn 21 and are not CSPA protected.

The Visa Bulletin that is in effect for a calendar month is the one that is ‘current’. In other words, during the calendar month of October, the dates of the October Visa Bulletin apply. The dates of the November Visa Bulletin do not apply in October, even if the November Visa Bulletin is released in early October.

If your immigration category is F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4 and if you live in the United States and you are going through Adjustment of Status, then you can use the Filing Date to determine whether you are allowed to file Form I-485.

Less than 2% of all Family Green Card applicants can use the Filing Date (15,000 out of 800,000 in Fiscal Year 2016). The main reasons the Filing Date is not used are:

  • Filing Date cannot be used by applicants going through Consular Processing
  • Most applicants going through Adjustment of Status are Immediate Relatives, not ‘preference’ applicants who have to maintain valid U.S. status for extended periods of time.

Unfortunately no. The dates listed in the Visa Bulletin are the first date for which a Green Card number is not available. For example, if the Final Action Date is Jan 1st 2016, applicants with a Priority Date of Jan 1st 2016 are not ‘current’ when compared to the Final Action Date.

In theory yes, in reality no.

The Welcome Letter is sent by the National Visa Center (NVC) to family applicants under a ‘preference’ classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) going through Consular Processing. Welcome Letters contain information that enable applicants who have an approved I-130 to file their Green Card Application.

So Filing Dates and Welcome Letters have the same purpose: determining when applicants can file their Green Card application whether through Form I-485 (adjustment of status) or Form DS-260 (Consular Processing). In theory, they should be the same. Filing Dates should simply ‘expose’ when applicants are within 12 months of their Final Action Dates becoming current. That way the NVC could make sure that Green Card applications are ‘interview-ready’ and schedule the Interview as soon as the Final Action Date becomes current.

Unfortunately, the reality is that generally Filing Dates do not become current within 12 months, and that Welcome Letters are generally sent when the Final Action Date is current, or about to become current.

That is why Immigration Planner releases Predictions about Final Action Dates, and not Filing Dates.

It depends. In order to see what our latest conclusions are, please read our post dedicated to this issue.

The process of scheduling the interview is initiated by U.S. immigration agencies when the following two requirements are met:

  • The applicant’s Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the relevant ‘Final Action Date’
  • The applicant’s Green Card Case is ‘interview-ready’ (also called ‘case complete’ or ‘documentarily qualified’, meaning that all the proper Forms, Evidence, and Fees necessary to make a decision on the Green Card Application have been received by U.S. Immigration Agencies).

Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s Priority Date (which is when Form I-130 was filed) is ‘earlier’ than the relevant Final Action Date. If the relevant Final Action Date is January 1st 2018, then applicants with a Priority Date ‘earlier’ (that is up to December 31st 2016) are said to be current.
The relevant Final Action Date refers to the Final Action Date that applies to applicants based on their preference classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) and countries of birth (Mexico, All Countries, …).

The month when the applicant’s Priority Date is current, U.S. Immigration agencies look for an available Interview slot in the month after next (if the applicant’s priority date becomes current in January, then they will start looking for slots in March). How long applicants wait depend on how busy the U.S. Consulate or USCIS Field office is.

Here are some of the things Immigration Planner’s tools help you think through while you wait:

  1. Maintaining your eligibility to your Green Card category. Things might for instance change if you get married!
  2. For applicants living in the United States, maintaining your eligibility to the adjustment of status process
  3. Establishing if you will need a waiver, and getting ready if you do
  4. Anticipate if there is a risk for your children to ‘age-out’ and whether the Child Status Protection Act (CSPA) might protect them
  5. Anticipate whether the sponsor becoming a U.S Citizen could be favorable, or would lead you to ‘opt-out’ of your new immigration category
  6. Be prepared to file the rest of the Green Card application as soon as U.S. immigration agencies allow it.

‘Documentarily qualified’, ‘Case complete’, ‘pre-processing’, ‘interview-ready’ all mean that U.S. immigration agencies have received all the Forms, Evidence, and Fees necessary to make a decision on the Green Card application. This is an administrative assessment that all the Forms and Documents have been filed because when they are not, a Request for Evidence is issued.

For ‘preference’ applicants who have a ‘current’ Priority Date when compared to the Final Action Date, the next step depends on the Green Card Process:

  • For applicants going through Consular Processing, the National Visa Center (NVC) will transfer the Green Card application to a U.S. Embassy or Consulate abroad (outside the United States)
  • For applicants going through Adjustment of Status, the National Benefit Center (NBC) will transfer the Green Card application to a USCIS Field Office (inside the United States)

The decision about the Green Card application will be made by the Consular Officer (a Department of State employee) for Consular Processing, or the Adjudicating Officer (a USCIS employee) for Adjustment of Status.

Immigration Planner: Forms and Status

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Guides

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What you need to know about NVC form DS-260 before and after you file.

6 important steps to complete, latest news and updates, and FAQ.

FAQ, tips and details about NVC steps and how to do accomplish this online.

Related Resources

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