What is the latest?
|Visa Bulletin Date:||Aug 2020|
|Final Action Date:||Jun 1, 2008|
What is our analysis of the latest?
For now the fifth month in a row (April to August), the advancement of F3 has been above our expectations.
We find that suprising for two reasons: 1) F3 is materially above its 10-year trend, and it normally should revert to that line (and slow down as a result); 2) The Visa Office itseld indicated as part of the January VB that the short-term movement was going to be '1 to 3 weeks' (from 'up to a month' earlier).
Obviously, the context of the 60-day Green Card suspension and Covid-19 make predictions all the more difficult.
How is F3-All Countries doing this year so far?
The present year is represented in bright green.
So we start every year at 0, and we look at the advancement month per month. This allows a quick comparison with happened over the last 5 years, as well as with the average of the last 20 years.
You can see that:
- The advancement of F3-All Countries so far is in line with the average of the last 20 years
- 2018 and 2019 were great years, and it really does not look like 2020 will be as strong a year
Note: Fiscal Year 2020 for U.S. Immigration Agencies is from October 1st, 2019 to September 30th, 2020 (it is different from a calendar year).
Let’s take a closer look at what happened over the last 6 months. Again the advancement has been solid (as it is in line with the average of the last 20 years), and April 2020 was a particularly strong month.
|Aug 2020||Jun 1, 2008||+3 weeks|
|Jul 2020||May 8, 2008||+3 weeks|
|Jun 2020||Apr 15, 2008||+4 weeks|
|May 2020||Mar 15, 2008||+6 weeks|
|Apr 2020||Feb 1, 2008||+6 weeks|
|Mar 2020||Dec 15, 2007||+3 weeks|
What does Immigration Planner predict?
First of all, note that our predictions is informed by the fact that F3-All Countries is currently materially above its 10-year trend. Also, as you can see, this preference has been stable for 8+ years. So the most likely scenario is for F3-All Countries to go back to its 10-year trend within the next 18 to 24 months.
Now that it has been established that you cannot hope for 2018 and 2019 to repeat themselves in 2020 or 2021, let’s look at the details of the predictions for the next few years.
Remember that for longer term predictions, and a full Green Card plan with Welcome Letter and Interview Date predictions, you need to access the more sophisticated parts of our website here (it takes less than 5 minutes to answer the 15 questions or so necessary to complete your full plan).
Our latest predictions for the Final Action Dates of F3 for 🌐All Countries.
Children of U.S. Citizens who are adults and married.
F3, All Countries – Final Action Dates Predictions FY2019 – FY2021:
|Aug 2020||Jun 1, 2008|
|Sep 2020||Jun 1, 2008|
|Oct 2020||Jun 15, 2008|
|Nov 2020||Jul 8, 2008|
|Dec 2020||Aug 1, 2008|
|Jan 2021||Aug 22, 2008|
|Feb 2021||Sep 15, 2008|
|Mar 2021||Oct 8, 2008|
|Apr 2021||Nov 1, 2008|
|May 2021||Nov 22, 2008|
|Jun 2021||Dec 15, 2008|
|Jul 2021||Jan 8, 2009|
|Aug 2021||Feb 1, 2009|
|Sep 2021||Feb 22, 2009|
|Oct 2021||Mar 8, 2009|
|Nov 2021||Apr 1, 2009|
|Dec 2021||May 1, 2009|
|Jan 2022||May 22, 2009|
|Feb 2022||Jun 22, 2009|
|Mar 2022||Jul 15, 2009|
|Apr 2022||Aug 8, 2009|
|May 2022||Sep 1, 2009|
|Jun 2022||Oct 1, 2009|
|Jul 2022||Nov 1, 2009|
|Aug 2022||Nov 22, 2009|
|Sep 2022||Dec 22, 2009|
|Oct 2022||Jan 8, 2010|
|Nov 2022||Feb 8, 2010|
|Dec 2022||Mar 15, 2010|
|Jan 2023||Apr 15, 2010|
|Feb 2023||May 15, 2010|
|Mar 2023||Jun 22, 2010|
|Apr 2023||Jul 15, 2010|
|May 2023||Aug 22, 2010|
|Jun 2023||Oct 1, 2010|
|Jul 2023||Nov 1, 2010|
Don’t see your Priority Date? Want to know when your Interview will take place? Get a detailed, personalized Timeline with Date Predictions for each step.
What does the Filing Date tell me?
We know that Applicants going through Adjustment of Status are often allowed to use the ‘Filing Date’ of the Visa Bulletin to determine when they are allowed to file Form I-485- and here is the latest:
|May 8, 2009||+3 weeks||✔︎ Yes, the Filing Date can be used|
At the same time, we know that few F3 Applicants are filing for Adjustment of Status, so the question becomes: can the Filing Date be helpful to Applicants going through Consular Processing?
First, let’s take a look at how the Filing Date (in pink, and above) is moving compared to the Final Action Date (in blue, and below).
Note the following obvious points here:
- The Filing Date is always ‘ahead’ of the ‘Final Action Date’, especially since early 2018. Nor surprise there, it is how it should be.
- Instead of abrupt advancement followed by a plateau, the Filing Date tends to advance more in ‘synchronization’ with the Final Action Date. This is good. It makes it more helpful.
- The Filing Date is more ‘ahead’ of the Final Action Date than it has ever been (about 243 days for the last 4 months). That tells you that the Visa Office remains optimistic about the trajectory, at least for the coming few months
But the more important and interesting question is to know howl long it takes for the Filing Date to become ‘current’ when compared to the Final Action Date. Remember, the Filing Date is supposed to be an ‘advanced warning’ to Applicants, essentially: ‘hey, if your Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the Filing Date, get ready to receive the Welcome Letter and go through the NVC’.
Traditionally, U.S. Immigration Agencies have said that the Filing Date is an ‘advanced warning’ a year ahead. In other words, the Filing Date indicates which Green Card cases are going to become ‘current’ within the next 12 months.
So, has it been true in the past? Let’s check that out. The following graph shows the number of days it took for the Filing Date of the Visa Bulletin to become ‘current’ when compared to the Final Action Date.
The pink line in the middle represents a year.
As you can see, since early 2017, the Filing Date of the Visa Bulletin for F3-All Countries becomes ‘current’ within a year. This is helpful. If you are in this situation, get ready (for details about what you should be working on, answer the questions here to build a detailed Plan & To Do list and learn how to navigate the NVC / CEAC).
The important point here though is that you cannot say that Filing Date = Welcome Letter. We are as frustrated as Applicants generally are about this. But, Filing Date is simply an indicator here. You need the Welcome Letter to proceed, and the Welcome Letter has its own ‘rhythm’ set by the NVC. The only thing that is certain is that you will receive a Welcome Letter if your Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the Final Action Date- hopefully as much as 6 months beforehand.
When will Immigration Planner update its predictions?
We expect to update our predictions the day after the next Visa Bulletin is released. Our best guess as to when we will update these predictions is as follows:
Aug 20, 2020
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