F2B-All Countries: Visa Bulletin Predictions

Analysis and Predictions

What is this prediction about?
This is a prediction of the ‘Final Action Date’ of the Visa Bulletin for family Green Cards F2B (Unmarried adult children of Green Card holders) for ‘All Countries’ (not Mexico and not the Philippines) based on the latest available data (September 2018).

What is the latest?

F2B
Latest
Visa Bulletin Date:Oct 2018
Chargeability:All Countries
Final Action Date:Nov 22, 2011
Movement:+3 weeks

In October 2018, F2B – All Countries started Fiscal Year 2019 (October 2018 to September 2019) with a 3-week advancement. This is a good sign after what has been a very strong last 6 months.


F2B
Last Six
Visa Bulletin
Final Action
Movement
Oct 2018Nov 22, 2011+3 weeks
Sep 2018Nov 1, 2011+1 weeks
Aug 2018Oct 22, 2011+9 weeks
Jul 2018Aug 15, 2011+7 weeks
Jun 2018Jun 22, 2011+5 weeks
May 2018May 15, 2011+5 weeks

What does Immigration Planner predict?

With no regression in September 2018 and a 3-week advancement in October 2018, U.S. immigration agencies seem to indicate that they do not believe that they have built too much ‘inventory’ (pending application) with the rapid advancement that we witnessed over the last 6 months. Our predictions for the Final Action Dates are as follows:

F2B, All Countries – Final Action Dates Predictions FY2019 – FY2021 (for longer, 20-year predictions, use our application to build your immigration plan with customized dates):

Visa Bulletin
Final Action
Oct 2018Nov 22, 2011
Nov 2018Jan 1, 2012
Dec 2018Feb 1, 2012
Jan 2019Mar 8, 2012
Feb 2019Apr 1, 2012
Mar 2019May 8, 2012
Apr 2019Jun 8, 2012
May 2019Jul 8, 2012
Jun 2019Aug 8, 2012
Jul 2019Sep 8, 2012
Aug 2019Oct 15, 2012
Sep 2019Nov 15, 2012
Oct 2019Dec 15, 2012
Nov 2019Jan 15, 2013
Dec 2019Feb 15, 2013
Jan 2020Mar 22, 2013
Feb 2020Apr 22, 2013
Mar 2020May 22, 2013
Apr 2020Jun 22, 2013
May 2020Jul 22, 2013
Jun 2020Aug 22, 2013
Jul 2020Sep 22, 2013
Aug 2020Oct 22, 2013
Sep 2020Nov 22, 2013
Oct 2020Dec 22, 2013
Nov 2020Feb 1, 2014
Dec 2020Mar 1, 2014
Jan 2021Apr 8, 2014
Feb 2021May 1, 2014
Mar 2021Jun 8, 2014
Apr 2021Jul 8, 2014
May 2021Aug 8, 2014
Jun 2021Sep 8, 2014
Jul 2021Oct 8, 2014
Aug 2021Nov 8, 2014
Sep 2021Dec 15, 2014

I am going through adjustment of status, what else applies to me?

Applicants going through adjustment of status are allowed to use the following ‘Filing Date’ of the October 2018 Visa Bulletin to determine if they are allowed to file Form I-485:

Mar 22, 2014


Historically, how long did it take for F2B applicants to become ‘current’?

Looking back, this is how long it took for prior applicants to have their priority date become current. For F2B, the latest available data shows it took just under 7 years:


Should you stay in F2B by ‘opting out’ of F1?

When sponsors who were Green Card holders become U.S. Citizen, their over-21-year-old unmarried children are moved from F2B to F1. But these applicants can also stay in F2B by ‘opting-out’ of F1. Should they stay? Right now, they should strongly consider it. For ‘all countries’, F2B is currently ‘ahead’ of F1 by almost 7 months:

When will the Interview be scheduled?

The process of scheduling the interview is intiated by U.S. immigration agencies when the following two requirements are met:

  • The applicant’s Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the relevant ‘Final Action Date’
  • The applicant’s Green Card Case is ‘interview-ready’ (also called ‘case complete’ or ‘documentarily qualified’, meaning that all the proper Forms, Evidence, and Fees necessary to make a decision on the Green Card Application have been received by U.S. Immigration Agencies).

Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s Priority Date (which is when Form I-130 was filed) is ‘earlier’ than the relevant Final Action Date. If the relevant Final Action Date is January 1st 2018, then applicants with a Priority Date ‘earlier’ (that is up to December 31st 2016) are said to be current.
The relevant Final Action Date refers to the Final Action Date that applies to applicants based on their preference classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) and countries of birth (Mexico, All Countries…).

The month when the applicant’s Priority Date is current, U.S. Immigration agencies look for an available Interview slot in the month after next (if the applicant’s priority date becomes current in January, then they will start looking for slots in March). How long applicants wait depend on how busy the U.S. Consulate or USCIS Field office is.

What happened during Fiscal Year 2018?

Fiscal Year 2018 refers to the period from October 2017 to September 2018. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2018 (represented by the thick red line). Fiscal Year 2018 ends up being slightly better than average. This certainly is much better than what anyone could have predicted after such a difficult start of the Fiscal Year:


What happened during Fiscal Year 2017?

Fiscal Year 2017 refers to the period from October 2016 to September 2017. Fiscal year 2017 was a weak year for the advancement of F2B. After a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2017 (represented by the thick blue line):


When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?

The next update will be around October 10th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for November 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.

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