F1-All Countries: Visa Bulletin Predictions

Analysis and Predictions

What is this prediction about?
This is a prediction of the ‘Final Action Date’ of the Visa Bulletin for family Green Cards F1 (Unmarried sons and daughters of U.S. citizens) for ‘All Countries’ (not Mexico and not the Philippines) based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.

What is the latest?

Visa Bulletin Date:Oct 2018
Chargeability:All Countries
Final Action Date:Jun 1, 2011
Movement:+7 weeks

In October 2018, F1 – All Countries started Fiscal Year 2019 (October 2018 to September 2019) with a solid 7-week advancement which more than compensate for the regression we saw in September 2018.

Last Six
Visa Bulletin
Final Action
Oct 2018Jun 1, 2011+7 weeks
Sep 2018Apr 8, 2011-5 weeks
Aug 2018May 8, 2011+2 weeks
Jul 2018Apr 22, 2011+2 weeks
Jun 2018Apr 8, 2011None
May 2018Apr 8, 2011None

What does Immigration Planner predict?

The Visa Bulletin for October 2018 confirms that the regression that took place in September 2018 was simply a way for U.S. immigration agencies to manage the number of interviews and stay under annual numerical limits. Overall, we expect stronger positive movement in Fiscal Year 2019 than in Fiscal Year 2018. We expect ‘Time to Current’ to gradually move from 7.5 years presently to less than 7 years. Our predictions for the Final Action Dates are as follows:

F1, All Countries – Final Action Dates Predictions FY2019 – FY2021 (for longer, 20-year predictions, use our application to build your immigration plan with customized dates):

Visa Bulletin
Final Action
Oct 2018Jun 1, 2011
Nov 2018Jun 15, 2011
Dec 2018Jul 15, 2011
Jan 2019Aug 22, 2011
Feb 2019Sep 22, 2011
Mar 2019Oct 22, 2011
Apr 2019Nov 22, 2011
May 2019Jan 1, 2012
Jun 2019Feb 1, 2012
Jul 2019Mar 8, 2012
Aug 2019Apr 8, 2012
Sep 2019May 15, 2012
Oct 2019Jun 15, 2012
Nov 2019Jul 22, 2012
Dec 2019Aug 22, 2012
Jan 2020Sep 22, 2012
Feb 2020Oct 22, 2012
Mar 2020Dec 1, 2012
Apr 2020Jan 8, 2013
May 2020Feb 8, 2013
Jun 2020Mar 15, 2013
Jul 2020Apr 15, 2013
Aug 2020May 22, 2013
Sep 2020Jun 22, 2013
Oct 2020Jul 22, 2013
Nov 2020Aug 22, 2013
Dec 2020Oct 1, 2013
Jan 2021Nov 8, 2013
Feb 2021Dec 8, 2013
Mar 2021Jan 8, 2014
Apr 2021Feb 15, 2014
May 2021Mar 22, 2014
Jun 2021Apr 22, 2014
Jul 2021May 22, 2014
Aug 2021Jun 22, 2014
Sep 2021Aug 1, 2014

I am going through adjustment of status, what else applies to me?

Applicants going through adjustment of status are allowed to use the following ‘Filing Date’ of the October 2018 Visa Bulletin to determine if they are allowed to file Form I-485:

Mar 8, 2012

Historically, how long did it take for F1 applicants to become ‘current’?

Looking back, this is how long it took for prior applicants to have their priority date become current. For F1, the latest available data shows it took about 7.5 years:

If you can, should you ‘opt-out’ of F1 right now?

When sponsors who were Green Card holders become U.S. Citizen, their over-21-year-old unmarried children are moved from F2B to F1. But these applicants can also ‘opt-out’ from F1 and stay in F2B. Should they? Right now, they should strongly consider it. For ‘all countries’, F1 is currently ‘behind’ F2B by almost 7 months:

When will the Interview be scheduled?

The process of scheduling the interview is initiated by U.S. immigration agencies when the following two requirements are met:

  • The applicant’s Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the relevant ‘Final Action Date’
  • The applicant’s Green Card Case is ‘interview-ready’ (also called ‘case complete’ or ‘documentarily qualified’, meaning that all the proper Forms, Evidence, and Fees necessary to make a decision on the Green Card Application have been received by U.S. Immigration Agencies).

Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s Priority Date (which is when Form I-130 was filed) is ‘earlier’ than the relevant Final Action Date. If the relevant Final Action Date is January 1st 2018, then applicants with a Priority Date ‘earlier’ (that is up to December 31st 2016) are said to be current.
The relevant Final Action Date refers to the Final Action Date that applies to applicants based on their preference classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) and countries of birth (Mexico, All Countries, …).

The month when the applicant’s Priority Date is current, U.S. Immigration agencies look for an available Interview slot in the month after next (if the applicant’s priority date becomes current in January, then they will start looking for slots in March). How long applicants wait depend on how busy the U.S. Consulate or USCIS Field office is.

What happened during Fiscal Year 2018?

Fiscal Year 2018 refers to the period from October 2017 to September 2018. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2018 (represented by the thick red line). Fiscal Year 2018 is one of the worst of the last 20 years.

What happened during Fiscal Year 2017?

Fiscal Year 2017 refers to the period from October 2016 to September 2017. During fiscal year 2017, the Final Action Date advanced quite rapidly and then plateaued. It still was a very strong year for F1, probably creating ‘inventory’ (pending applications) that they had to go through in Fiscal Year 2018. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2017 (represented by the thick blue line).

When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?

The next update will be around October 10th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for November 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.

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