F4-All Countries: Visa Bulletin Predictions

Analysis and Predictions

What is this prediction about?
This is a prediction of the ‘Final Action Date’ of the Visa Bulletin for family Green Cards F4 (Brothers and Sisters of U.S. Citizens) for ‘All Countries’ (not Mexico and not the Philippines).

What is the latest?

Visa Bulletin Date:Oct 2018
Chargeability:All Countries
Final Action Date:Feb 15, 2005
Movement:+5 weeks

In October 2018, F4 – All Countries started Fiscal Year 2019 (October 2018 to September 2019) with a stronger than expected 5-week advancement. We certainly hope that this is a good sign for the months to come.

Last Six
Visa Bulletin
Final Action
Oct 2018Feb 15, 2005+5 weeks
Sep 2018Jan 8, 2005+2 weeks
Aug 2018Dec 22, 2004+5 weeks
Jul 2018Nov 15, 2004+3 weeks
Jun 2018Oct 22, 2004+3 weeks
May 2018Oct 1, 2004+2 weeks

What does Immigration Planner predict?

We are expecting to see in Fiscal Year 2019 (October 2018 to September 2019) movements that are in line with the historical averages of the last 20 years. ‘Time to current’ for applicants filing this year should, in our estimation, stay under 14 years. Our predictions for the Final Action Dates are as follows:

F4, All Countries – Final Action Dates Predictions FY2019 – FY2021 (for longer, 20-year predictions, use our application to build your immigration plan with customized dates):

Visa Bulletin
Final Action
Oct 2018Feb 15, 2005
Nov 2018Mar 1, 2005
Dec 2018Apr 1, 2005
Jan 2019Apr 22, 2005
Feb 2019May 22, 2005
Mar 2019Jun 22, 2005
Apr 2019Jul 22, 2005
May 2019Aug 15, 2005
Jun 2019Sep 15, 2005
Jul 2019Oct 8, 2005
Aug 2019Nov 8, 2005
Sep 2019Dec 8, 2005
Oct 2019Jan 1, 2006
Nov 2019Jan 22, 2006
Dec 2019Feb 22, 2006
Jan 2020Mar 22, 2006
Feb 2020Apr 22, 2006
Mar 2020May 22, 2006
Apr 2020Jun 15, 2006
May 2020Jul 15, 2006
Jun 2020Aug 15, 2006
Jul 2020Sep 8, 2006
Aug 2020Oct 8, 2006
Sep 2020Nov 1, 2006
Oct 2020Dec 1, 2006
Nov 2020Dec 22, 2006
Dec 2020Jan 22, 2007
Jan 2021Feb 22, 2007
Feb 2021Mar 22, 2007
Mar 2021Apr 15, 2007
Apr 2021May 15, 2007
May 2021Jun 15, 2007
Jun 2021Jul 8, 2007
Jul 2021Aug 8, 2007
Aug 2021Sep 8, 2007
Sep 2021Oct 1, 2007

I am going through adjustment of status, what else applies to me?

Applicants going through adjustment of status are allowed to use the following ‘Filing Date’ of the October 2018 Visa Bulletin to determine if they are allowed to file Form I-485:

May 1, 2005

Historically, how long did it take for F4 applicants to become ‘current’?

Looking back, this is how long it took for prior applicants to have their priority date become current. For F4, the latest available data shows it took between 13 and 14 years:

When will the Interview be scheduled?

The process of scheduling the interview is intiated by U.S. immigration agencies when the following two requirements are met:

  • The applicant’s Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the relevant ‘Final Action Date’
  • The applicant’s Green Card Case is ‘interview-ready’ (also called ‘case complete’ or ‘documentarily qualified’, meaning that all the proper Forms, Evidence, and Fees necessary to make a decision on the Green Card Application have been received by U.S. Immigration Agencies).

Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s Priority Date (which is when Form I-130 was filed) is ‘earlier’ than the relevant Final Action Date. If the relevant Final Action Date is January 1st 2018, then applicants with a Priority Date ‘earlier’ (that is up to December 31st 2016) are said to be current.
The relevant Final Action Date refers to the Final Action Date that applies to applicants based on their preference classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) and countries of birth (Mexico, All Countries, …).

What happened during Fiscal Year 2018?

Fiscal Year 2018 refers to the period from October 2017 to September 2018. F4 ends Fiscal Year 2018 (October 2017 to September 2018) with a 2-week advancement following a solid August and a solid July. Overall, F4 was a slightly below average year, but not as bad as we might have feared after the first four months of the Fiscal Year. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2018 (represented by the thick red line):

What happened during Fiscal Year 2017?

Fiscal Year 2017 refers to the period from October 2016 to September 2017. Fiscal year 2017 was already a weak year for the advancement of F4. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2017 (represented by the thick blue line). After a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled:

When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?

The next update will be around October 10th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for November 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.

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