What is this prediction about?
This is a prediction of the ‘Final Action Date’ of the Visa Bulletin for family Green Cards F4 (Brothers and Sisters of U.S. Citizens) for ‘All Countries’ (not Mexico and not the Philippines).
What is the latest?
F4 | Latest |
|---|---|
| Visa Bulletin Date: | Oct 2018 |
| Chargeability: | All Countries |
| Final Action Date: | Feb 15, 2005 |
| Movement: | +5 weeks |
In October 2018, F4 – All Countries started Fiscal Year 2019 (October 2018 to September 2019) with a stronger than expected 5-week advancement. We certainly hope that this is a good sign for the months to come.
F4 | Last Six | |
|---|---|---|
Visa Bulletin | Final Action | Movement |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 15, 2005 | +5 weeks |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 8, 2005 | +2 weeks |
| Aug 2018 | Dec 22, 2004 | +5 weeks |
| Jul 2018 | Nov 15, 2004 | +3 weeks |
| Jun 2018 | Oct 22, 2004 | +3 weeks |
| May 2018 | Oct 1, 2004 | +2 weeks |
What does Immigration Planner predict?
We are expecting to see in Fiscal Year 2019 (October 2018 to September 2019) movements that are in line with the historical averages of the last 20 years. ‘Time to current’ for applicants filing this year should, in our estimation, stay under 14 years. Our predictions for the Final Action Dates are as follows:
F4, All Countries – Final Action Dates Predictions FY2019 – FY2021 (for longer, 20-year predictions, use our application to build your immigration plan with customized dates):
Visa Bulletin | Final Action |
|---|---|
| Oct 2018 | Feb 15, 2005 |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 1, 2005 |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 1, 2005 |
| Jan 2019 | Apr 22, 2005 |
| Feb 2019 | May 22, 2005 |
| Mar 2019 | Jun 22, 2005 |
| Apr 2019 | Jul 22, 2005 |
| May 2019 | Aug 15, 2005 |
| Jun 2019 | Sep 15, 2005 |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 8, 2005 |
| Aug 2019 | Nov 8, 2005 |
| Sep 2019 | Dec 8, 2005 |
| Oct 2019 | Jan 1, 2006 |
| Nov 2019 | Jan 22, 2006 |
| Dec 2019 | Feb 22, 2006 |
| Jan 2020 | Mar 22, 2006 |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 22, 2006 |
| Mar 2020 | May 22, 2006 |
| Apr 2020 | Jun 15, 2006 |
| May 2020 | Jul 15, 2006 |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 15, 2006 |
| Jul 2020 | Sep 8, 2006 |
| Aug 2020 | Oct 8, 2006 |
| Sep 2020 | Nov 1, 2006 |
| Oct 2020 | Dec 1, 2006 |
| Nov 2020 | Dec 22, 2006 |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 22, 2007 |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 22, 2007 |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 22, 2007 |
| Mar 2021 | Apr 15, 2007 |
| Apr 2021 | May 15, 2007 |
| May 2021 | Jun 15, 2007 |
| Jun 2021 | Jul 8, 2007 |
| Jul 2021 | Aug 8, 2007 |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 8, 2007 |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 1, 2007 |
I am going through adjustment of status, what else applies to me?
Applicants going through adjustment of status are allowed to use the following ‘Filing Date’ of the October 2018 Visa Bulletin to determine if they are allowed to file Form I-485:
May 1, 2005 |
|---|
Historically, how long did it take for F4 applicants to become ‘current’?
Looking back, this is how long it took for prior applicants to have their priority date become current. For F4, the latest available data shows it took between 13 and 14 years:
When will the Interview be scheduled?
The process of scheduling the interview is intiated by U.S. immigration agencies when the following two requirements are met:
- The applicant’s Priority Date is ‘current’ when compared to the relevant ‘Final Action Date’
- The applicant’s Green Card Case is ‘interview-ready’ (also called ‘case complete’ or ‘documentarily qualified’, meaning that all the proper Forms, Evidence, and Fees necessary to make a decision on the Green Card Application have been received by U.S. Immigration Agencies).
Being ‘current’ means that the applicant’s Priority Date (which is when Form I-130 was filed) is ‘earlier’ than the relevant Final Action Date. If the relevant Final Action Date is January 1st 2018, then applicants with a Priority Date ‘earlier’ (that is up to December 31st 2016) are said to be current.
The relevant Final Action Date refers to the Final Action Date that applies to applicants based on their preference classification (F1, F2A, F2B, F3, F4) and countries of birth (Mexico, All Countries, …).
What happened during Fiscal Year 2018?
Fiscal Year 2018 refers to the period from October 2017 to September 2018. F4 ends Fiscal Year 2018 (October 2017 to September 2018) with a 2-week advancement following a solid August and a solid July. Overall, F4 was a slightly below average year, but not as bad as we might have feared after the first four months of the Fiscal Year. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2018 (represented by the thick red line):
What happened during Fiscal Year 2017?
Fiscal Year 2017 refers to the period from October 2016 to September 2017. Fiscal year 2017 was already a weak year for the advancement of F4. The following graph compares the last 20 years of the Visa Bulletin with Fiscal Year 2017 (represented by the thick blue line). After a ‘normal’ start of the fiscal year, things stalled:
When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around October 10th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for November 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.
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