Family-based green card F1 preference: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

What is family-based 1st preference?
Unmarried sons and daughters of U.S. citizens.


What do we predict?
We are predicting the advancement of the ‘final action date’, which is published every month in the visa bulletin. Applicants who have a priority date before the ‘final action date’:

  • May submit their request to adjust status (form I-485) when they are filing from within the United States (at least until May 31st 2018), adjustment of status applicants can file if their priority date is current compared to the filing date (the ‘gain’ is 9 months).
  • May have their interview scheduled when they are going through consular processing

What is the basis of the prediction?
We released a first prediction at the beginning of the U.S. government fiscal year, which started on October 1st 2017. Now, because we know the actual visa bulletin dates for Oct. ’17 – Jun. ’18, we are able to update this prediction and extend it to Dec ’19.


Does the prediction apply to Mexico and the Philippines?
No, it does not. The prediction applies to all countries except Mexico and the Philippines.


What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is in the bottom third.


What does Immigration Planner predict?
Fiscal Year 2018 (Oct. ’17 – Jun. ’18) has been a disappointing for F1 so far, and this is again confirmed in June with no movement forward. On the positive side though, there was no retrogression, and it will hopefully remain the case until the end of the Fiscal Year, in September 2018. We are still predicting movement forward from now until September 2018, but this looks increasingly optimistic. It really feels like U.S. immigration agencies have quite an ‘inventory’ of interviews to go through before they can add new cases. Current predictions are as follows:

More specifically, these are the dates we predict:

Visa Bulletin Predictions for F1 Final Action Dates.
Visa Bulletin
F1 Final Action date
Type
Jan 2018Mar 15, 2011actual
Feb 2018Mar 15, 2011actual
Mar 2018Mar 22, 2011actual
Apr 2018Apr 8, 2011actual
May 2018Apr 8, 2011actual
Jun 2018April 8, 2011actual
Jul 2018Apr 22, 2011prediction
Aug 2018May 22, 2011prediction
Sep 2018Jun 8, 2011prediction
Oct 2018Jul 1, 2011prediction
Nov 2018Jul 22, 2011prediction
Dec 2018Aug 15, 2011prediction
Jan 2019Sep 8, 2011prediction
Feb 2019Oct 1, 2011prediction
Mar 2019Oct 22, 2011prediction
Apr 2019Nov 15, 2011prediction
May 2019Dec 8, 2011prediction
Jun 2019Jan 1, 2012prediction
Jul 2019Jan 22, 2012prediction
Aug 2019Feb 15, 2012prediction
Sep 2019Mar 8, 2012prediction
Oct 2019March 22, 2012prediction
Nov 2019Apr 22, 2012prediction
Dec 2019May 15, 2012prediction

What happened last year?
During fiscal year 2017, the final action date advanced quite rapidly and then plateaued. It still was a very strong year for F1. As a result however, it is likely that U.S. immigration agencies created a lot of ‘inventory’ (pending applications) that they have to go through in Fiscal Year 2018.


When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around June 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for July 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.


Related Resources

Visa Bulletin
Visa Bulletin: June 2018 analysis

Analysis of the June 2018 Visa Bulletin for family Green Card applicants.

F2A Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 2A: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2A date for 'all countries' will reach March 1st, 2017 in January 2019.

f2b
Family-based green card preference 2B: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2B date for 'all countries' will reach February 8th, 2012 in January 2019.

F3 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 3: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F3 date for 'all countries' will reach May 22nd, 2006 in January 2019.

F4 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Family-based green card preference 4: predictions for the ‘Final Action date’

Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F4 date for 'all countries' will reach April 15th, 2005 in January 2019.

List of all the questions in the DS-260

All the questions in the DS-260, an online form used by the National Visa Center (NVC) to gather information about applicants for family green cards.