What is family-based 1st preference?
Unmarried sons and daughters of U.S. citizens.
What do we predict?
We are predicting the advancement of the ‘final action date’, which is published every month in the visa bulletin. Applicants who have a priority date before the ‘final action date’:
- May submit their request to adjust status (form I-485) when they are filing from within the United States (at least until May 31st 2018), adjustment of status applicants can file if their priority date is current compared to the filing date (the ‘gain’ is 9 months).
- May have their interview scheduled when they are going through consular processing
What is the basis of the prediction?
We released a first prediction at the beginning of the U.S. government fiscal year, which started on October 1st 2017. Now, because we know the actual visa bulletin dates for Oct. ’17 – Jun. ’18, we are able to update this prediction and extend it to Dec ’19.
Does the prediction apply to Mexico and the Philippines?
No, it does not. The prediction applies to all countries except Mexico and the Philippines.
What happened since the beginning of the new fiscal year in October 2017?
If you compare the advancement with the last 20 years (the thick red line represents the last months of known data), Fiscal Year 2018 is in the bottom third.
What does Immigration Planner predict?
Fiscal Year 2018 (Oct. ’17 – Jun. ’18) has been a disappointing for F1 so far, and this is again confirmed in June with no movement forward. On the positive side though, there was no retrogression, and it will hopefully remain the case until the end of the Fiscal Year, in September 2018. We are still predicting movement forward from now until September 2018, but this looks increasingly optimistic. It really feels like U.S. immigration agencies have quite an ‘inventory’ of interviews to go through before they can add new cases. Current predictions are as follows:
More specifically, these are the dates we predict:
F1 Final Action date
|Jan 2018||Mar 15, 2011||actual|
|Feb 2018||Mar 15, 2011||actual|
|Mar 2018||Mar 22, 2011||actual|
|Apr 2018||Apr 8, 2011||actual|
|May 2018||Apr 8, 2011||actual|
|Jun 2018||April 8, 2011||actual|
|Jul 2018||Apr 22, 2011||prediction|
|Aug 2018||May 22, 2011||prediction|
|Sep 2018||Jun 8, 2011||prediction|
|Oct 2018||Jul 1, 2011||prediction|
|Nov 2018||Jul 22, 2011||prediction|
|Dec 2018||Aug 15, 2011||prediction|
|Jan 2019||Sep 8, 2011||prediction|
|Feb 2019||Oct 1, 2011||prediction|
|Mar 2019||Oct 22, 2011||prediction|
|Apr 2019||Nov 15, 2011||prediction|
|May 2019||Dec 8, 2011||prediction|
|Jun 2019||Jan 1, 2012||prediction|
|Jul 2019||Jan 22, 2012||prediction|
|Aug 2019||Feb 15, 2012||prediction|
|Sep 2019||Mar 8, 2012||prediction|
|Oct 2019||March 22, 2012||prediction|
|Nov 2019||Apr 22, 2012||prediction|
|Dec 2019||May 15, 2012||prediction|
What happened last year?
During fiscal year 2017, the final action date advanced quite rapidly and then plateaued. It still was a very strong year for F1. As a result however, it is likely that U.S. immigration agencies created a lot of ‘inventory’ (pending applications) that they have to go through in Fiscal Year 2018.
When will Immigration Planner update its predictions and why?
The next update will be around June 15th, 2018 when the Visa Bulletin for July 2018 will be released by U.S. immigration agencies. Immigration Planner is updating its predictions every month based on the latest available Visa Bulletin.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2A date for 'all countries' will reach March 1st, 2017 in January 2019.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F2B date for 'all countries' will reach February 8th, 2012 in January 2019.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F3 date for 'all countries' will reach May 22nd, 2006 in January 2019.
Immigration Planner is predicting that the Visa Bulletin F4 date for 'all countries' will reach April 15th, 2005 in January 2019.